Financial Markets as Early Predictors of War
Whitman Drake
Before wars are announced, before headlines are written, and often before governments publicly acknowledge rising tensions, financial markets have already begun to move. Prices shift, capital reallocates, volatility increases, and certain assets begin behaving in ways that suggest something deeper is unfolding beneath the surface. While mainstream media tends to document events as they happen, financial markets often respond earlier, sometimes because they are acting on signals that are not yet visible to the public, and sometimes because large participants are interpreting risk in ways that have not yet entered the broader conversation.
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